Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Baseball Prospectus Projections-Mets a 74 win team

Prediction: And here we go again, the annual PECOTA predictions are out. For the third straight year the New York Mets are projected to go 74-88. PECOTA predictions are not opinions, but are calculated statistics (so we're all told.) A 74-88 record will put the Mets in fourth place in the NL East according to PECOTA.

My view: While many can argue the Mets only replaced Marlon Byrd with Curtis Granderson, and Matt Harvey with Bartolo Colon, I believe this team will finish around the 80 win mark and third place in the NL East. What many people leave out is the fact the Mets are banking on increasing production from their catching position, better defense from the Young and Granderson acquisitions, and a bounce back from Ike Davis. All these things may or may not happen, but I will bet on the latter. The starting pitching is intact, not to mention Syndergaard and Montero are on their way. Holes still exist at short stop and first base for the time being. These holes may exist all season. The bullpen is in much better shape heading into 2014 than it was in 2013 after the emergence of Parnell and Vic Black.

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